What the last 14 days look like in the data
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Side-by-side: each window vs the same number of days immediately before
Real customer purchases ($20+) only, so we're comparing the same kind of sale across both periods. Prior-period definition matches the current window length.
Sales per week since March, broken out by price tier
Three product tiers: $1 lead magnet, $20 mid, $40 premium. Last bar is partial (6 of 7 days).
Daily sales count with 7-day and 30-day moving averages
Number of paid transactions per day. The 7-day moving average smooths weekly noise; the 30-day shows the longer trend.
Daily revenue with 7-day moving average
Bars are daily revenue. The blue line is the 7-day moving average — it smooths out the natural day-to-day variation so we can see the underlying trend. The dashed yellow line is the 30-day moving average for longer context.
Reading the moving average: it dipped earlier this month (around Apr 6, down to $37) before climbing back to $87 on Apr 21. The current pullback looks similar in shape to that earlier one.
What the data is telling us
The same set of facts the chart shows, written out.
The two-week window
- Last 14 days vs the 14 days before that: revenue +5%, sales count +9%.
- Looking at the 30-day window: revenue +161% on real $20+ sales vs the prior 30 days.
- So the "last two weeks" period — the exact window in question — is on net up, not down.
The last few days
- The most recent 3 days are genuinely soft: $80 across 2 sales, vs $280 across 9 sales in the 3 days before. That's a real pullback worth keeping an eye on.
- Apr 21 was the 2nd-best single day in the whole dataset ($181). The drop happened in the 4 days right after that peak.
- The 7-day moving average has dipped and recovered before this month — most recently bottoming on Apr 6 and climbing back through Apr 21.
What this means for Tuesday
- The two-week trend is healthy. The recent slowdown is concentrated in the last 3 days, sitting on top of a strong April overall.
- If the 7-day moving average keeps falling for another week, that's the signal to act. Right now it's still tracking inside the same range we've seen recover before.
- Worth pulling Meta spend numbers into the next view so we can talk ROAS alongside revenue, not just revenue on its own.
Keep watching
Daily revenue and the 7-day MA. If the MA stays below $50 for a full week, that's a meaningful change.
Pull next
Meta ad spend by day for the same period — to check whether revenue per dollar has actually moved.
Hold steady
Mid-month had a similar shape and recovered. Suggesting we observe a few more days before changing the campaign.